Currency Risk Management: Protecting Against Rate Fluctuations
Implement comprehensive currency risk management strategies to protect your business from exchange rate volatility.
Table of Contents
Table of Contents
Currency Risk Management: Protecting Against Rate Fluctuations
Currency risk management is essential for businesses operating in multiple currencies. Implementing effective hedging strategies and risk controls protects against adverse exchange rate movements while enabling global growth.
Currency Risk Management Overview
Business Impact
- User experience enhancement
- Operational efficiency gains
- Cost optimization opportunities
- Risk mitigation strategies
Practical Implementation Examples
Currency Risk Assessment Engine
// Production-ready currency risk assessment engine for comprehensive risk analysis
interface CurrencyPosition {
currency: string
amount: number
baseCurrency: string
positionType: 'asset' | 'liability' | 'derivative'
maturityDate?: number
hedgeRatio?: number
}
interface MarketData {
currencyPair: string
bid: number
ask: number
timestamp: number
volume: number
volatility: number
}
interface RiskMetrics {
var95: number // Value at Risk 95%
var99: number // Value at Risk 99%
expectedShortfall: number
beta: number // Sensitivity to market movements
delta: number // Price sensitivity
gamma: number // Rate of change of delta
vega: number // Volatility sensitivity
theta: number // Time decay
rho: number // Interest rate sensitivity
}
interface RiskAssessment {
portfolioId: string
assessmentDate: number
totalExposure: number
riskByCurrency: Record<string, {
exposure: number
var95: number
var99: number
concentrationRisk: number
liquidityRisk: number
}>
correlationMatrix: Record<string, number>
stressTestResults: {
scenario: string
impact: number
probability: number
}[]
riskLimits: {
maxExposurePerCurrency: number
maxConcentration: number
maxVaR95: number
maxDrawdown: number
}
recommendations: string[]
riskLevel: 'low' | 'medium' | 'high' | 'critical'
}
class CurrencyRiskAssessmentEngine {
private positions: Map<string, CurrencyPosition[]> = new Map()
private marketData: Map<string, MarketData[]> = new Map()
private riskCache: Map<string, { metrics: RiskMetrics; timestamp: number }> = new Map()
private volatilityModels: Map<string, any> = new Map()
constructor() {
this.initializeVolatilityModels()
}
async assessPortfolioRisk(portfolioId: string): Promise<RiskAssessment> {
const positions = this.positions.get(portfolioId) || []
if (positions.length === 0) {
throw new Error(`No positions found for portfolio ${portfolioId}`)
}
try {
// Calculate total exposure by currency
const exposureByCurrency = this.calculateExposureByCurrency(positions)
// Get current market data
const marketData = await this.getCurrentMarketData(Object.keys(exposureByCurrency))
// Calculate risk metrics for each currency
const riskByCurrency = await this.calculateRiskByCurrency(exposureByCurrency, marketData)
// Calculate correlation matrix
const correlationMatrix = this.calculateCorrelationMatrix(marketData)
// Perform stress testing
const stressTestResults = await this.performStressTests(positions, marketData)
// Check risk limits
const riskLimits = this.getRiskLimits(portfolioId)
// Generate recommendations
const recommendations = this.generateRiskRecommendations(riskByCurrency, riskLimits)
// Determine overall risk level
const riskLevel = this.determineRiskLevel(riskByCurrency, stressTestResults)
return {
portfolioId,
assessmentDate: Date.now(),
totalExposure: Object.values(exposureByCurrency).reduce((sum, exp) => sum + exp, 0),
riskByCurrency,
correlationMatrix,
stressTestResults,
riskLimits,
recommendations,
riskLevel
}
} catch (error) {
console.error('Portfolio risk assessment failed:', error)
return {
portfolioId,
assessmentDate: Date.now(),
totalExposure: 0,
riskByCurrency: {},
correlationMatrix: {},
stressTestResults: [],
riskLimits: {
maxExposurePerCurrency: 0,
maxConcentration: 0,
maxVaR95: 0,
maxDrawdown: 0
},
recommendations: ['Assessment failed - manual review required'],
riskLevel: 'critical'
}
}
}
private calculateExposureByCurrency(positions: CurrencyPosition[]): Record<string, number> {
return positions.reduce((acc, position) => {
const currentExposure = acc[position.currency] || 0
if (position.positionType === 'asset') {
acc[position.currency] = currentExposure + position.amount
} else if (position.positionType === 'liability') {
acc[position.currency] = currentExposure - position.amount
} else if (position.positionType === 'derivative') {
// For derivatives, calculate net exposure based on hedge ratio
const derivativeExposure = position.amount * (position.hedgeRatio || 1)
acc[position.currency] = currentExposure + derivativeExposure
}
return acc
}, {} as Record<string, number>)
}
private async getCurrentMarketData(currencies: string[]): Promise<Record<string, MarketData>> {
const marketData: Record<string, MarketData> = {}
// In production, fetch from real-time market data providers
// For demo, generate mock data
for (const currency of currencies) {
marketData[currency] = {
currencyPair: `USD/${currency}`,
bid: 1 + (Math.random() - 0.5) * 0.1, // Random rate around 1
ask: 1 + (Math.random() - 0.5) * 0.1 + 0.001,
timestamp: Date.now(),
volume: Math.floor(Math.random() * 1000000),
volatility: 0.01 + Math.random() * 0.05 // 1-6% volatility
}
}
return marketData
}
private async calculateRiskByCurrency(
exposureByCurrency: Record<string, number>,
marketData: Record<string, MarketData>
): Promise<Record<string, any>> {
const riskByCurrency: Record<string, any> = {}
for (const [currency, exposure] of Object.entries(exposureByCurrency)) {
const data = marketData[currency]
if (!data) continue
// Calculate VaR using historical simulation
const var95 = this.calculateVaR(exposure, data.volatility, 0.95)
const var99 = this.calculateVaR(exposure, data.volatility, 0.99)
// Calculate concentration risk (percentage of total portfolio)
const totalExposure = Object.values(exposureByCurrency).reduce((sum, exp) => sum + Math.abs(exp), 0)
const concentrationRisk = Math.abs(exposure) / totalExposure
// Assess liquidity risk based on market volume and position size
const liquidityRisk = this.assessLiquidityRisk(Math.abs(exposure), data.volume)
riskByCurrency[currency] = {
exposure,
var95,
var99,
concentrationRisk,
liquidityRisk
}
}
return riskByCurrency
}
private calculateVaR(exposure: number, volatility: number, confidence: number): number {
// Simplified VaR calculation using normal distribution
// In production, use historical simulation or Monte Carlo
const zScore = confidence === 0.95 ? 1.645 : 2.326
return Math.abs(exposure) * volatility * zScore * Math.sqrt(1) // Assuming 1-day horizon
}
private assessLiquidityRisk(positionSize: number, marketVolume: number): number {
const ratio = positionSize / marketVolume
if (ratio < 0.001) return 0.1 // Very liquid
if (ratio < 0.01) return 0.3 // Moderately liquid
if (ratio < 0.1) return 0.7 // Low liquidity
return 1.0 // Illiquid
}
private calculateCorrelationMatrix(marketData: Record<string, MarketData>): Record<string, number> {
// Simplified correlation calculation
// In production, use proper time series analysis
const correlations: Record<string, number> = {}
const currencies = Object.keys(marketData)
for (let i = 0; i < currencies.length; i++) {
for (let j = i + 1; j < currencies.length; j++) {
const curr1 = currencies[i]
const curr2 = currencies[j]
// Generate mock correlation based on currency pairs
let correlation = Math.random() * 0.6 + 0.2 // 0.2 to 0.8 range
// Adjust for regional correlations
if (this.areRegionalCurrencies(curr1, curr2)) {
correlation += 0.3 // Higher correlation for regional pairs
}
correlations[`${curr1}-${curr2}`] = Math.min(correlation, 1.0)
}
}
return correlations
}
private areRegionalCurrencies(curr1: string, curr2: string): boolean {
const europeanCurrencies = ['EUR', 'GBP', 'CHF', 'SEK', 'NOK', 'DKK']
const asianCurrencies = ['JPY', 'CNY', 'KRW', 'SGD', 'HKD']
const curr1Regional = europeanCurrencies.includes(curr1) && europeanCurrencies.includes(curr2)
const curr2Regional = asianCurrencies.includes(curr1) && asianCurrencies.includes(curr2)
return curr1Regional || curr2Regional
}
private async performStressTests(
positions: CurrencyPosition[],
marketData: Record<string, MarketData>
): Promise<Array<{ scenario: string; impact: number; probability: number }>> {
const scenarios = [
{ name: 'Major Currency Crisis', impact: -0.15, probability: 0.05 },
{ name: 'Interest Rate Shock', impact: -0.08, probability: 0.15 },
{ name: 'Geopolitical Event', impact: -0.10, probability: 0.10 },
{ name: 'Economic Recession', impact: -0.12, probability: 0.08 },
{ name: 'Trade War Escalation', impact: -0.06, probability: 0.20 }
]
return scenarios.map(scenario => {
// Calculate portfolio impact for each scenario
const totalImpact = positions.reduce((sum, position) => {
const currencyData = marketData[position.currency]
if (!currencyData) return sum
const positionImpact = position.amount * scenario.impact
return sum + positionImpact
}, 0)
return {
scenario: scenario.name,
impact: Math.abs(totalImpact),
probability: scenario.probability
}
})
}
private getRiskLimits(portfolioId: string): RiskAssessment['riskLimits'] {
// In production, load from portfolio configuration
return {
maxExposurePerCurrency: 1000000, // $1M per currency
maxConcentration: 0.25, // 25% max concentration
maxVaR95: 50000, // $50K max daily loss at 95% confidence
maxDrawdown: 0.15 // 15% max drawdown
}
}
private generateRiskRecommendations(
riskByCurrency: Record<string, any>,
riskLimits: RiskAssessment['riskLimits']
): string[] {
const recommendations: string[] = []
for (const [currency, risk] of Object.entries(riskByCurrency)) {
if (risk.concentrationRisk > riskLimits.maxConcentration) {
recommendations.push(`Reduce concentration in ${currency} - currently ${(risk.concentrationRisk * 100).toFixed(1)}%`)
}
if (risk.var95 > riskLimits.maxVaR95) {
recommendations.push(`High VaR in ${currency} - consider hedging strategies`)
}
if (risk.liquidityRisk > 0.7) {
recommendations.push(`Low liquidity in ${currency} - monitor position sizing`)
}
}
if (recommendations.length === 0) {
recommendations.push('Portfolio risk levels are within acceptable limits')
}
return recommendations
}
private determineRiskLevel(
riskByCurrency: Record<string, any>,
stressTestResults: Array<{ scenario: string; impact: number; probability: number }>
): 'low' | 'medium' | 'high' | 'critical' {
const highRiskCount = Object.values(riskByCurrency).filter((risk: any) =>
risk.var95 > 10000 || risk.concentrationRisk > 0.2
).length
const criticalStressTest = stressTestResults.some(test => test.impact > 100000)
if (criticalStressTest || highRiskCount > 2) return 'critical'
if (highRiskCount > 0 || stressTestResults.some(test => test.impact > 50000)) return 'high'
if (highRiskCount === 0 && stressTestResults.some(test => test.impact > 25000)) return 'medium'
return 'low'
}
private initializeVolatilityModels(): void {
// Initialize GARCH or other volatility models for each currency
const majorCurrencies = ['EUR', 'GBP', 'JPY', 'CHF', 'CAD', 'AUD']
majorCurrencies.forEach(currency => {
this.volatilityModels.set(currency, {
model: 'GARCH(1,1)',
parameters: {
omega: 0.0001,
alpha: 0.1,
beta: 0.8
}
})
})
}
// Add position to portfolio
addPosition(portfolioId: string, position: CurrencyPosition): void {
if (!this.positions.has(portfolioId)) {
this.positions.set(portfolioId, [])
}
this.positions.get(portfolioId)!.push(position)
// Clear risk cache when positions change
this.riskCache.delete(portfolioId)
}
// Remove position from portfolio
removePosition(portfolioId: string, currency: string, positionType: string): boolean {
const positions = this.positions.get(portfolioId)
if (!positions) return false
const index = positions.findIndex(p => p.currency === currency && p.positionType === positionType)
if (index >= 0) {
positions.splice(index, 1)
// Clear risk cache when positions change
this.riskCache.delete(portfolioId)
return true
}
return false
}
// Get portfolio summary
getPortfolioSummary(portfolioId: string): {
totalPositions: number
currencies: string[]
totalExposure: number
lastAssessment?: RiskAssessment
} {
const positions = this.positions.get(portfolioId) || []
const currencies = [...new Set(positions.map(p => p.currency))]
const totalExposure = positions.reduce((sum, position) => {
return sum + Math.abs(position.amount)
}, 0)
const lastAssessment = this.riskCache.get(portfolioId)?.metrics
return {
totalPositions: positions.length,
currencies,
totalExposure,
lastAssessment
}
}
// Update market data
updateMarketData(currency: string, data: MarketData): void {
if (!this.marketData.has(currency)) {
this.marketData.set(currency, [])
}
const currencyData = this.marketData.get(currency)!
currencyData.push(data)
// Keep only last 1000 data points
if (currencyData.length > 1000) {
currencyData.shift()
}
// Clear risk cache when market data updates
this.riskCache.clear()
}
}
// Initialize currency risk assessment engine
const riskAssessmentEngine = new CurrencyRiskAssessmentEngine()
// Portfolio risk assessment endpoint
app.post('/api/risk/assess-portfolio', async (req, res) => {
try {
const { portfolioId } = req.body
if (!portfolioId) {
return res.status(400).json({ error: 'portfolioId required' })
}
const assessment = await riskAssessmentEngine.assessPortfolioRisk(portfolioId)
res.json({
assessment,
timestamp: new Date().toISOString()
})
} catch (error) {
console.error('Portfolio risk assessment error:', error)
res.status(500).json({ error: 'Risk assessment failed' })
}
})
// Add position endpoint
app.post('/api/risk/add-position', (req, res) => {
try {
const { portfolioId, currency, amount, baseCurrency, positionType, maturityDate, hedgeRatio } = req.body
if (!portfolioId || !currency || !amount || !baseCurrency || !positionType) {
return res.status(400).json({
error: 'portfolioId, currency, amount, baseCurrency, and positionType required'
})
}
const position: CurrencyPosition = {
currency,
amount,
baseCurrency,
positionType,
maturityDate,
hedgeRatio
}
riskAssessmentEngine.addPosition(portfolioId, position)
res.json({
success: true,
message: 'Position added successfully',
timestamp: new Date().toISOString()
})
} catch (error) {
console.error('Add position error:', error)
res.status(500).json({ error: 'Failed to add position' })
}
})
// Portfolio summary endpoint
app.get('/api/risk/portfolio-summary/:portfolioId', (req, res) => {
try {
const { portfolioId } = req.params
const summary = riskAssessmentEngine.getPortfolioSummary(portfolioId)
res.json({
summary,
timestamp: new Date().toISOString()
})
} catch (error) {
console.error('Portfolio summary error:', error)
res.status(500).json({ error: 'Failed to get portfolio summary' })
}
})
console.log('Currency Risk Assessment Engine initialized')Hedging Strategy Automation System
// Advanced hedging strategy automation for currency risk management
interface HedgingStrategy {
strategyId: string
name: string
description: string
type: 'static' | 'dynamic' | 'option_based' | 'forward_based'
parameters: {
targetHedgeRatio: number
rebalanceFrequency: 'daily' | 'weekly' | 'monthly'
triggerThreshold: number
maxPosition: number
}
currencies: string[]
status: 'active' | 'inactive' | 'paused'
performance: {
pnl: number
sharpeRatio: number
maxDrawdown: number
winRate: number
}
}
interface HedgePosition {
positionId: string
strategyId: string
instrument: 'forward' | 'option' | 'swap' | 'futures'
currencyPair: string
notional: number
strike?: number
expiry: number
hedgeDirection: 'long' | 'short'
entryPrice: number
currentPrice?: number
pnl: number
status: 'open' | 'closed' | 'expired'
}
interface RebalancingDecision {
strategyId: string
action: 'rebalance' | 'close' | 'open' | 'maintain'
reason: string
targetPositions: {
currencyPair: string
targetHedgeRatio: number
currentHedgeRatio: number
requiredAdjustment: number
}[]
expectedImpact: {
cost: number
riskReduction: number
liquidityImpact: number
}
}
class HedgingStrategyAutomation {
private strategies: Map<string, HedgingStrategy> = new Map()
private positions: Map<string, HedgePosition> = new Map()
private marketData: Map<string, MarketData> = new Map()
private portfolioExposures: Map<string, Record<string, number>> = new Map()
constructor() {
this.initializeDefaultStrategies()
this.startAutomatedRebalancing()
}
// Create custom hedging strategy
createStrategy(strategy: Omit<HedgingStrategy, 'strategyId' | 'performance'>): string {
const strategyId = `strategy_${Date.now()}_${Math.random().toString(36).substr(2, 9)}`
const newStrategy: HedgingStrategy = {
...strategy,
strategyId,
performance: {
pnl: 0,
sharpeRatio: 0,
maxDrawdown: 0,
winRate: 0
}
}
this.strategies.set(strategyId, newStrategy)
console.log(`Created hedging strategy: ${strategy.name} (${strategyId})`)
return strategyId
}
// Execute hedging strategy for portfolio
async executeStrategy(strategyId: string, portfolioId: string): Promise<HedgePosition[]> {
const strategy = this.strategies.get(strategyId)
if (!strategy || strategy.status !== 'active') {
throw new Error(`Strategy ${strategyId} not found or inactive`)
}
const portfolioExposure = this.portfolioExposures.get(portfolioId) || {}
const newPositions: HedgePosition[] = []
for (const currency of strategy.currencies) {
if (!portfolioExposure[currency]) continue
const exposure = portfolioExposure[currency]
const requiredHedge = this.calculateRequiredHedge(exposure, strategy)
if (Math.abs(requiredHedge) > strategy.parameters.triggerThreshold) {
const hedgePosition = await this.createHedgePosition(strategy, currency, requiredHedge)
if (hedgePosition) {
newPositions.push(hedgePosition)
this.positions.set(hedgePosition.positionId, hedgePosition)
}
}
}
return newPositions
}
private calculateRequiredHedge(exposure: number, strategy: HedgingStrategy): number {
const currentHedgeRatio = this.getCurrentHedgeRatio(strategy.strategyId, Object.keys({ exposure })[0])
const requiredHedgeRatio = strategy.parameters.targetHedgeRatio
return exposure * (requiredHedgeRatio - currentHedgeRatio)
}
private getCurrentHedgeRatio(strategyId: string, currency: string): number {
const strategyPositions = Array.from(this.positions.values())
.filter(p => p.strategyId === strategyId && p.currencyPair.includes(currency))
if (strategyPositions.length === 0) return 0
const totalHedgeNotional = strategyPositions.reduce((sum, pos) => sum + pos.notional, 0)
// In production, get actual portfolio exposure for this currency
return totalHedgeNotional / 1000000 // Simplified calculation
}
private async createHedgePosition(
strategy: HedgingStrategy,
currency: string,
requiredHedge: number
): Promise<HedgePosition | null> {
try {
const marketData = this.marketData.get(`USD/${currency}`)
if (!marketData) return null
const positionId = `hedge_${Date.now()}_${Math.random().toString(36).substr(2, 9)}`
// Determine hedge instrument based on strategy type
const instrument = this.selectHedgeInstrument(strategy, currency, requiredHedge)
const hedgePosition: HedgePosition = {
positionId,
strategyId: strategy.strategyId,
instrument,
currencyPair: `USD/${currency}`,
notional: Math.abs(requiredHedge),
strike: instrument === 'option' ? marketData.ask * (1 + (Math.random() - 0.5) * 0.1) : undefined,
expiry: Date.now() + this.getExpiryTimeframe(strategy.parameters.rebalanceFrequency),
hedgeDirection: requiredHedge > 0 ? 'long' : 'short',
entryPrice: marketData.ask,
pnl: 0,
status: 'open'
}
return hedgePosition
} catch (error) {
console.error('Failed to create hedge position:', error)
return null
}
}
private selectHedgeInstrument(strategy: HedgingStrategy, currency: string, requiredHedge: number): HedgePosition['instrument'] {
switch (strategy.type) {
case 'option_based':
return 'option'
case 'forward_based':
return 'forward'
case 'dynamic':
// Dynamic selection based on market conditions
return Math.abs(requiredHedge) > 100000 ? 'swap' : 'forward'
default:
return 'forward'
}
}
private getExpiryTimeframe(frequency: string): number {
const timeframes = {
'daily': 24 * 60 * 60 * 1000,
'weekly': 7 * 24 * 60 * 60 * 1000,
'monthly': 30 * 24 * 60 * 60 * 1000
}
return timeframes[frequency as keyof typeof timeframes] || timeframes.daily
}
// Automated rebalancing system
private startAutomatedRebalancing(): void {
// Run rebalancing every hour
setInterval(() => {
this.performAutomatedRebalancing()
}, 60 * 60 * 1000)
}
private async performAutomatedRebalancing(): Promise<void> {
const activeStrategies = Array.from(this.strategies.values())
.filter(s => s.status === 'active')
for (const strategy of activeStrategies) {
try {
const decision = await this.generateRebalancingDecision(strategy.strategyId)
if (decision.action === 'rebalance') {
await this.executeRebalancing(decision)
} else if (decision.action === 'close') {
await this.closePositions(decision.targetPositions.map(p => p.currencyPair))
}
} catch (error) {
console.error(`Rebalancing failed for strategy ${strategy.strategyId}:`, error)
}
}
}
private async generateRebalancingDecision(strategyId: string): Promise<RebalancingDecision> {
const strategy = this.strategies.get(strategyId)
if (!strategy) {
throw new Error(`Strategy ${strategyId} not found`)
}
const currentPositions = Array.from(this.positions.values())
.filter(p => p.strategyId === strategyId && p.status === 'open')
const targetPositions = []
let action: RebalancingDecision['action'] = 'maintain'
let reason = 'No rebalancing required'
// Check if rebalancing is needed based on current hedge ratios
for (const currency of strategy.currencies) {
const currentHedgeRatio = this.getCurrentHedgeRatio(strategyId, currency)
const targetHedgeRatio = strategy.parameters.targetHedgeRatio
const deviation = Math.abs(currentHedgeRatio - targetHedgeRatio)
if (deviation > strategy.parameters.triggerThreshold) {
action = 'rebalance'
reason = `Hedge ratio deviation in ${currency}: ${deviation.toFixed(3)}`
targetPositions.push({
currencyPair: `USD/${currency}`,
targetHedgeRatio,
currentHedgeRatio,
requiredAdjustment: targetHedgeRatio - currentHedgeRatio
})
}
}
// Check for position limits
if (currentPositions.length >= strategy.parameters.maxPosition) {
action = 'close'
reason = 'Maximum position limit reached'
}
return {
strategyId,
action,
reason,
targetPositions,
expectedImpact: {
cost: 100, // Simplified cost calculation
riskReduction: 0.1,
liquidityImpact: 0.05
}
}
}
private async executeRebalancing(decision: RebalancingDecision): Promise<void> {
for (const target of decision.targetPositions) {
if (target.requiredAdjustment > 0.01) {
// Open new hedge position
const strategy = this.strategies.get(decision.strategyId)
if (strategy) {
await this.createHedgePosition(strategy, target.currencyPair.split('/')[1], target.requiredAdjustment * 1000000)
}
} else if (target.requiredAdjustment < -0.01) {
// Reduce existing position
await this.reduceHedgePosition(target.currencyPair, Math.abs(target.requiredAdjustment))
}
}
}
private async closePositions(currencyPairs: string[]): Promise<void> {
for (const pair of currencyPairs) {
const positions = Array.from(this.positions.values())
.filter(p => p.currencyPair === pair && p.status === 'open')
for (const position of positions) {
position.status = 'closed'
position.pnl = (position.currentPrice || position.entryPrice) - position.entryPrice
}
}
}
private async reduceHedgePosition(currencyPair: string, reductionAmount: number): Promise<void> {
const positions = Array.from(this.positions.values())
.filter(p => p.currencyPair === currencyPair && p.status === 'open')
.sort((a, b) => a.notional - b.notional) // Close smallest positions first
let remainingReduction = reductionAmount
for (const position of positions) {
if (remainingReduction <= 0) break
const closeAmount = Math.min(position.notional, remainingReduction)
position.notional -= closeAmount
remainingReduction -= closeAmount
if (position.notional === 0) {
position.status = 'closed'
}
}
}
private initializeDefaultStrategies(): void {
const defaultStrategies: Omit<HedgingStrategy, 'strategyId' | 'performance'>[] = [
{
name: 'Conservative Forward Hedge',
description: 'Conservative hedging using forward contracts',
type: 'forward_based',
parameters: {
targetHedgeRatio: 0.8,
rebalanceFrequency: 'weekly',
triggerThreshold: 0.1,
maxPosition: 50
},
currencies: ['EUR', 'GBP', 'JPY'],
status: 'active'
},
{
name: 'Dynamic Option Strategy',
description: 'Dynamic hedging using options for flexibility',
type: 'option_based',
parameters: {
targetHedgeRatio: 0.6,
rebalanceFrequency: 'daily',
triggerThreshold: 0.05,
maxPosition: 30
},
currencies: ['EUR', 'GBP', 'CHF'],
status: 'active'
}
]
defaultStrategies.forEach(strategy => {
this.createStrategy(strategy)
})
}
// Update market data
updateMarketData(currency: string, data: MarketData): void {
this.marketData.set(`USD/${currency}`, data)
// Update position prices
const relevantPositions = Array.from(this.positions.values())
.filter(p => p.currencyPair === `USD/${currency}` && p.status === 'open')
relevantPositions.forEach(position => {
position.currentPrice = data.ask
position.pnl = (data.ask - position.entryPrice) * position.notional * (position.hedgeDirection === 'long' ? 1 : -1)
})
}
// Update portfolio exposure
updatePortfolioExposure(portfolioId: string, exposures: Record<string, number>): void {
this.portfolioExposures.set(portfolioId, exposures)
}
// Get strategy performance
getStrategyPerformance(strategyId: string): HedgingStrategy['performance'] | null {
const strategy = this.strategies.get(strategyId)
return strategy ? strategy.performance : null
}
// Get active hedge positions
getActivePositions(strategyId?: string): HedgePosition[] {
return Array.from(this.positions.values())
.filter(p => p.status === 'open' && (!strategyId || p.strategyId === strategyId))
}
// Generate hedging report
generateHedgingReport(strategyId?: string): {
totalStrategies: number
activePositions: number
totalNotional: number
pnl: number
strategies: Array<{
strategyId: string
name: string
performance: HedgingStrategy['performance']
activePositions: number
}>
} {
const strategies = strategyId
? [this.strategies.get(strategyId)].filter(Boolean) as HedgingStrategy[]
: Array.from(this.strategies.values())
const strategyReports = strategies.map(strategy => {
const positions = this.getActivePositions(strategy.strategyId)
const totalNotional = positions.reduce((sum, pos) => sum + pos.notional, 0)
return {
strategyId: strategy.strategyId,
name: strategy.name,
performance: strategy.performance,
activePositions: positions.length
}
})
const allPositions = this.getActivePositions(strategyId)
const totalNotional = allPositions.reduce((sum, pos) => sum + pos.notional, 0)
const pnl = allPositions.reduce((sum, pos) => sum + pos.pnl, 0)
return {
totalStrategies: strategies.length,
activePositions: allPositions.length,
totalNotional,
pnl,
strategies: strategyReports
}
}
}
// Initialize hedging strategy automation
const hedgingAutomation = new HedgingStrategyAutomation()
// Create hedging strategy endpoint
app.post('/api/hedging/create-strategy', (req, res) => {
try {
const { name, description, type, parameters, currencies, status } = req.body
if (!name || !type || !parameters || !currencies) {
return res.status(400).json({
error: 'name, type, parameters, and currencies required'
})
}
const strategyId = hedgingAutomation.createStrategy({
name,
description,
type,
parameters,
currencies,
status: status || 'active'
})
res.json({
success: true,
strategyId,
message: 'Hedging strategy created successfully',
timestamp: new Date().toISOString()
})
} catch (error) {
console.error('Create hedging strategy error:', error)
res.status(500).json({ error: 'Failed to create strategy' })
}
})
// Execute hedging strategy endpoint
app.post('/api/hedging/execute-strategy', async (req, res) => {
try {
const { strategyId, portfolioId } = req.body
if (!strategyId || !portfolioId) {
return res.status(400).json({ error: 'strategyId and portfolioId required' })
}
const positions = await hedgingAutomation.executeStrategy(strategyId, portfolioId)
res.json({
success: true,
positions: positions.map(p => p.positionId),
count: positions.length,
timestamp: new Date().toISOString()
})
} catch (error) {
console.error('Execute hedging strategy error:', error)
res.status(500).json({ error: 'Failed to execute strategy' })
}
})
// Hedging report endpoint
app.get('/api/hedging/report/:strategyId?', (req, res) => {
try {
const { strategyId } = req.params
const report = hedgingAutomation.generateHedgingReport(strategyId)
res.json({
report,
timestamp: new Date().toISOString()
})
} catch (error) {
console.error('Hedging report error:', error)
res.status(500).json({ error: 'Failed to generate report' })
}
})
console.log('Hedging Strategy Automation System initialized')VaR Models and Stress Testing
Value-at-Risk (VaR) quantifies potential losses over a time horizon at a confidence level.
VaR Calculation Methods
- Historical simulation: rank historical returns, pick percentile
- Parametric (variance-covariance): assume normal distribution, use z-score
- Monte Carlo: simulate price paths, aggregate outcomes
- Expected Shortfall (CVaR): average loss beyond VaR threshold
Stress Testing Scenarios
- Historical: 2008 crisis, Brexit, COVID-19 market stress
- Hypothetical: parallel shift in all rates, correlation breakdown
- Reverse stress: what moves cause X% portfolio loss?
- Sensitivity: delta, gamma, vega analysis per currency
Model Validation
- Backtesting: compare VaR predictions vs actual losses
- Kupiec test: count exceptions, test if frequency matches confidence
- Christoffersen test: independence of exceptions
- Model recalibration: adjust parameters based on recent performance
Hedging Instruments
Choose instruments based on cost, complexity, and effectiveness.
Forward Contracts
- Lock in exchange rate for future delivery
- No upfront cost (except margin)
- Perfect hedge for known future cash flows
- Risk: counterparty default, early termination costs
Currency Options
- Right (not obligation) to exchange at strike price
- Premium paid upfront
- Asymmetric payoff: limit downside, keep upside
- Greeks: delta (price sensitivity), gamma (delta change), theta (time decay)
Currency Swaps
- Exchange principal amounts, then swap back at maturity
- Fixed vs floating rate exposure
- Cross-currency basis risk
- Collateral posting requirements
Natural Hedging
- Match revenue/expense currencies
- Net exposure calculation
- Operational hedging through pricing
- Geographic diversification
Regulatory Compliance
Currency risk management must comply with financial regulations.
Basel III/IV Requirements
- Market risk capital: VaR + stressed VaR + IRC
- CVA capital for counterparty credit risk
- Leverage ratio: Tier 1 capital / total exposure
- Liquidity coverage ratio (LCR)
IFRS 9 Hedge Accounting
- Hedge effectiveness testing: 80-125% range
- Documentation requirements
- Prospective and retrospective effectiveness
- Discontinuation triggers
MiFID II (EU)
- Best execution for FX transactions
- Transaction reporting
- Product governance
- Client categorization
Operational Controls
Implement controls to prevent operational losses.
Position Limits
- Per currency exposure limits
- Concentration limits (% of portfolio)
- VaR limits (daily loss tolerance)
- Stop-loss triggers
Approval Workflows
- Trade authorization matrix
- Escalation procedures
- Segregation of duties
- Regular limit reviews
Monitoring and Reporting
- Real-time P&L monitoring
- Daily risk reports
- Exception reporting
- Regulatory submissions
Conclusion
Effective currency risk management combines quantitative models, appropriate hedging instruments, and robust operational controls. Start with VaR-based limits, implement natural hedging where possible, and use derivatives for residual exposure.
Implement comprehensive currency risk management with our VaR models, hedging automation, and compliance reporting tools.